Real Vision founder Raoul Pal thinks the next leg of the crypto rally depends on two things: a softer US dollar and a breather in AI stocks. He also expects AI agents to send much of their onchain activity to Ethereum and Solana, not Bitcoin.
Liquidity Is the Missing Piece
Speaking on Cointelegraph’s Trade Secrets podcast, Pal said higher bond yields and a strong dollar are stopping liquidity from flowing freely. “If they can engineer the dollar lower, then we get a green light for further movement in crypto,” he said, though he added that he doesn’t have a full green light yet.
Conditions are tight. The US 10-year Treasury yield climbed to 5.29% in September, and the Federal Reserve recently raised its benchmark rate by a quarter-point. Pal’s ideal setup is a weaker dollar, a steeper yield curve and banks lending more to expand the money supply.
Why an AI Pause Could Help Crypto
If that doesn’t happen, Pal’s “second best scenario” is for AI stocks to move sideways, freeing capital to rotate into crypto. He pointed to August as evidence. Between Aug. 19 and Aug. 25, Bitcoin rose about 25% to $80,000 while Nvidia logged seven straight losing sessions. He said the rotation shows liquidity “is not abundant yet.”
An AI crash is a different story. Pal said a bursting bubble would signal liquidity being “sucked out of the system,” threatening the conditions crypto needs. “Things don’t go bust if liquidity is plentiful,” he said.
AI Agents May Favor Ethereum and Solana
Pal believes Bitcoin will miss much of the economic activity AI agents generate. Agents can already pay for web content with stablecoins through a feature Amazon Web Services introduced in June, with Coinbase handling verification and settlement through its x402 protocol. USDC on Base is among the supported options.
He suggested agents could eventually raise their own funding by issuing tokens for projects lasting “a week, a month, a year.” Smart contract platforms are the natural home for that. “My guess is they’ll get more adoption over time as AI uses them,” he said.
Also Read: Peter Brandt Says Bitcoin’s Bottom Is In. Here’s Why His Own Warning Should Scare the Bulls
Ethereum vs. Solana: Economic Density
Pal pushed back on Multicoin Capital co-founder Kyle Samani’s prediction that SOL will pass Ether’s market cap this cycle, saying Samani “needs to hold his horses a little bit.” The networks lead on different metrics. DefiLlama data shows Solana with about 3.2 million active addresses in 24 hours versus Ethereum’s 387,000, but Ethereum holds roughly $54.4 billion in DeFi against Solana’s $6.7 billion.
Pal frames this as “economic density,” or total value locked divided by active users. By that measure, Ethereum draws more capital per user. “Solana’s core activity is speculation,” he said. “It’s just smaller clip sizes.”
Price Targets Off the Table
Pal says he no longer gives public price targets because they get clipped and recirculated. He called million-dollar Bitcoin by 2030 a “meme” reflecting adoption, ETF interest and collateral use. By 2032, though, “I don’t have an issue with that.”
Disclaimer: The information in this article is for general purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. The author’s views are personal and may not reflect the views of Chain Affairs. Before making any investment decisions, you should always conduct your own research. Chain Affairs is not responsible for any financial losses.
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