Bitcoin’s next major rally won’t come from retail traders or corporate treasuries — it will come from the world’s largest pools of institutional money, according to Bitwise Chief Investment Officer Matt Hougan.
In comments shared with CoinDesk, Hougan laid out a decade-long thesis: financial advisers, family offices, pension funds, endowments, insurers, sovereign wealth funds and even central banks are set to gradually treat bitcoin as a standard portfolio asset. He pointed to early evidence already emerging in 13F filings tied to spot bitcoin ETFs, along with moves from major wealth managers like Morgan Stanley and Wells Fargo to widen client access to the asset.
A $100 Trillion Opportunity
The numbers behind Hougan’s forecast are enormous. He estimates that institutions collectively control between $100 trillion and $200 trillion in global assets. Even a modest 1% allocation from that pool, he argues, would be enough to push bitcoin toward the price levels he’s projected.
That thinking underpins Hougan’s long-standing target of $1.3 million per bitcoin by 2035, a figure built on the idea that bitcoin could eventually capture roughly a quarter of the broader store-of-value market. He draws a comparison to gold, whose market value has climbed from about $2 trillion when gold-backed ETFs debuted in 2004 to nearly $30 trillion now. If that market continues expanding at its historical rate of around 13% a year, a quarter of it would be enough to justify his seven-figure bitcoin estimate.
“Institutions have most of the money in the world,” Hougan said, noting that retail demand carried crypto from zero to roughly $2 trillion — but scaling further will require institutional capital.
Strategy’s Role Is Shifting
Hougan also addressed Strategy, the company built by Michael Saylor that holds 842,138 BTC and remains the largest corporate bitcoin owner despite some recent trimming. He believes its influence as the market’s primary buyer is fading.
According to Hougan, Strategy benefited from two temporary advantages: a stock premium tied to being one of the only public proxies for bitcoin exposure, and heavy use of convertible debt to fund purchases. Spot ETFs have undercut the first advantage, while balance-sheet limits have curbed the second. He expects Strategy to keep buying, just more cautiously and more in step with market cycles.
The Bigger Question
Rather than debating short-term price bottoms, Hougan suggested investors should be asking something different: whether bitcoin’s long-term ceiling has already been reached — or whether the real institutional wave hasn’t even started.
Disclaimer: The information in this article is for general purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. The author’s views are personal and may not reflect the views of chainrant.com. Before making any investment decisions, you should always conduct your own research. chainrant.com/ is not responsible for any financial losses.
