Brian Armstrong has scaled back one of crypto’s most-watched price predictions. The Coinbase CEO now says $400,000 is a “reasonable target” for Bitcoin by 2030 — a sharp downgrade from the $1 million figure he floated just a year ago.
From $1 Million To A Narrower Range
Armstrong made the comments in a CNBC Squawk Box Asia interview published September 10, telling viewers he believes the recent Bitcoin cycle has already bottomed and pointing to stress in global bond markets as a potential tailwind for demand. It’s the second time in a month he’s used this figure — he first paired $300,000 and $400,000 as likely 2030 outcomes during an August 20 appearance on Fox Business’s Varney & Co.
That’s a notable retreat from where he stood a year earlier. In August and again in September 2025, Armstrong told his followers on X that he expected Bitcoin to reach $1 million by 2030, citing regulatory clarity, a potential government Bitcoin reserve, and rising ETF interest. He hasn’t published a model explaining the shift, but in his Fox Business appearance he tied the newer, lower range to regulatory progress, institutional adoption, and Bitcoin’s capped supply rather than any new valuation framework.
Bitcoin’s Cycle And Coinbase’s Shifting Business
Armstrong also used the interview to note that Bitcoin’s spot market had spent roughly a year in a downturn, comparable in length to past bear phases of 370 to 380 days, and that the months following a halving — October through December — have historically been stronger. He pointed out that Bitcoin spot trading now accounts for only about 12% of Coinbase‘s revenue, with derivatives, prediction markets, stablecoin payments, and tokenized assets making up a growing share of the business. Separately, he addressed the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act, arguing that regulatory definition will arrive either through the bill’s passage or via rulemaking from the SEC and CFTC if it stalls.
Also Read: Arthur Hayes Predicts $1M Bitcoin by 2030 — But He’s Buying This Instead
How Armstrong’s Number Compares To Wall Street
Armstrong’s revised figure lands closer to the lower end of what other analysts are projecting. ARK Invest’s published framework puts a bear case around $300,000, a base case near $710,000, and a bull case as high as $1.5 million by 2030, though the firm has since trimmed its bull scenario as stablecoins absorbed some of the demand it once expected Bitcoin to capture. Cathie Wood has cited a base case closer to $730,000. Bernstein’s research team, meanwhile, has modeled a base-case peak near $300,000 by late 2029 with a $500,000 bull case, while Standard Chartered’s Geoffrey Kendrick has settled on $500,000 by 2030 with interim steps at $300,000 in 2028 and $400,000 in 2029.
Armstrong’s walked-back forecast puts him in line with more conservative Wall Street estimates rather than the more aggressive six- and seven-figure targets circulating a year ago. As with all of these projections, they remain opinions shaped by current conditions — not guarantees — and subject to revision as regulation, liquidity, and demand evolve.
Disclaimer: The information in this article is for general purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. The author’s views are personal and may not reflect the views of chainrant.com. Before making any investment decisions, you should always conduct your own research. chainrant.com is not responsible for any financial losses.
