Analyst Gert van Lagen is sketching a long-term XRP path toward $50 using two separate charts. Both point to roughly the same number, and both depend on XRP first defending its current price area.
The XRP/USD Chart: A Multi-Year Breakout Retest
Van Lagen’s monthly chart stretches back to 2014 and puts XRP near $1.50 as of Oct. 6, 2026. It shows XRP spending years below a ceiling around $0.03, failing there repeatedly between 2014 and 2017, then breaking through during the 2017 rally and moving quickly into a much higher range.
He applies the same resistance-to-support logic to a larger structure. After XRP’s 2018 peak, a broad resistance zone formed around $2 to $2.10. XRP challenged it in later cycles without holding above it, while a rising trendline built from the 2020 low and its higher lows squeezed price from below. The result is a large symmetrical triangle.
XRP pushed through $2 during the 2024-2025 advance and traded above $3. It then fell back toward the same zone. Van Lagen labels the earlier encounters “RESISTANCE” and the current one “SUPPORT?” The question mark matters: XRP at about $1.50 still has to prove the old ceiling can act as a floor.
What the Purple Projection Shows
The purple path starting around 2027 is a projection, not price history. It has XRP leaving the current structure, first reaching roughly $6 to $10, consolidating, then climbing through areas near $14.50, $21.50 and above $30. Van Lagen rounds the outcome to about $50. That figure is the end of the roadmap, not the next resistance level.
The XRP/BTC Chart: A 450% Relative Gain
The second chart measures XRP against Bitcoin. The ratio sits near 0.00002, and Van Lagen’s upper reference is 0.00011, an area reached in an earlier relative-strength cycle. Getting there means a rise of roughly 5.5 times, or about 450% against Bitcoin.
That makes the thesis demanding. XRP could climb in dollar terms and still miss the ratio target if Bitcoin rises just as fast.
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Why $450,000 Bitcoin Gives Nearly $50 XRP
Van Lagen pairs the 0.00011 ratio with a hypothetical Bitcoin price of $450,000. The math is $450,000 × 0.00011 = $49.50. At the same ratio, the outcome shifts with Bitcoin:
- BTC at $200,000 implies XRP near $22
- BTC at $300,000 implies XRP near $33
- BTC at $450,000 implies XRP near $49.50
So the second chart doesn’t independently demand $50. It says XRP could trade near $50 only if both conditions hit together. Van Lagen cites 2017 as precedent, when XRP repriced against Bitcoin very fast, but that is a historical comparison, not a timetable.
The $3 Trillion Figure
At $50 per XRP and a circulating supply around 60 billion tokens, the implied market cap lands close to $3 trillion. That is a valuation on paper, not $3 trillion of cash flowing into XRP.
What to Watch
The nearer test is the retest. If the broad $1.20 to $2.10 zone and the rising long-term trendline hold, the breakout structure stays intact. A decisive break below the trendline would pull XRP back into the old multi-year formation and weaken the setup long before $50 comes into play. This is one analyst’s scenario, built on a Bitcoin price that has not occurred, not a forecast.
Disclaimer: The information in this article is for general purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. The author’s views are personal and may not reflect the views of Chain Affairs. Before making any investment decisions, you should always conduct your own research. Chain Affairs is not responsible for any financial losses.
