Veteran crypto investor Michael Terpin believes Bitcoin’s correction may not be over, warning that the world’s largest cryptocurrency could decline to around $43,500 before establishing its next major market bottom.
Speaking during Cointelegraph’s Trade Secrets show, Terpin argued that Bitcoin is still following its traditional four-year market cycle despite growing institutional participation and the rise of spot Bitcoin ETFs. While many investors believe institutional demand has permanently changed Bitcoin’s price behavior, Terpin disagrees, saying previous market patterns remain intact.
Terpin Expects More Downside for Bitcoin
According to Terpin, Bitcoin has not yet experienced the type of capitulation typically seen at the end of bear markets. He estimates the asset could eventually lose around 66% from its October 2025 all-time high of $126,100, placing Bitcoin near $43,500.
He explained that true market bottoms are often marked by prolonged weakness rather than quick rebounds. In his view, investor optimism continues to prevent the kind of widespread selling that has historically signaled the end of previous downturns.
Terpin also pointed to past market cycles, recalling that many investors expected Bitcoin to climb to $100,000 after reaching roughly $69,000 in late 2021. Instead, the market entered a prolonged correction before eventually surpassing six figures in December 2024.
Macroeconomic Conditions Still Matter
The Transform Ventures founder believes broader economic conditions continue to play a major role in Bitcoin’s performance.
He said recent market cycles have been shaped by challenging macroeconomic environments and argued that expectations for more favorable conditions following Donald Trump’s election did not fully materialize due to tariffs and other market factors.
Despite these headwinds, Terpin maintains that Bitcoin’s halving-driven four-year cycle remains the dominant force behind long-term price movements.
He also dismissed the argument that institutional investors only accumulate Bitcoin without selling, noting that large financial players regularly adjust positions like any other market participant.
Bitcoin Over Strategy, Says Terpin
Terpin also discussed investment strategy, comparing direct Bitcoin ownership with investing in companies heavily tied to the cryptocurrency, including Strategy.
While acknowledging that Strategy has historically delivered strong returns during certain market phases, he said he personally prefers owning Bitcoin rather than relying on the performance of a single company.
He added that Bitcoin generally requires less active portfolio management than altcoins, making it a more suitable long-term investment for many investors.
Conclusion
Although Michael Terpin remains optimistic about Bitcoin’s long-term future, he believes investors should prepare for additional volatility before the market reaches its next major low. His outlook reflects a broader view that Bitcoin’s historical cycles remain relevant, even as institutional adoption continues to reshape the digital asset landscape.
