BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes thinks Bitcoin is headed to seven figures within four years. Yet the billionaire trader says his own money is going somewhere else first: Ethereum.
Speaking on the latest episode of Trade Secrets, Hayes laid out a case for Bitcoin reaching $1 million by 2030, pointing to a mix of macro pressures he believes are converging in the market’s favor. But when it comes to where he’s actually deploying capital right now, he’s betting on ETH’s short-term upside over BTC’s long-term climb.
Why Hayes Thinks Bitcoin’s Bottom Is Already In
Hayes argues that a cooling AI investment bubble, aggressive monetary expansion, and the possibility of the US adopting yield curve control are lining up to push Bitcoin sharply higher. He believes the asset already found its floor at $58,000 and is now entering what he bluntly called a “grind higher” phase.
That forecast puts him at odds with other analysts in the space. Just weeks earlier, 10x Research’s Markus Thielen dismissed the $1 million target as unrealistic, arguing that the capital inflows needed to get Bitcoin there over the next four years far exceed anything it has absorbed in its entire history.
Ethereum, Not Hyperliquid, Is His Top Trade
Despite his long-term Bitcoin conviction, Hayes says Ethereum offers the better near-term opportunity. He expects ETH could climb three to five times its current value relatively fast, calling it the most overlooked major crypto asset on the market — still the only large-cap token yet to reclaim its 2021 peak.
He’s grown notably cooler on Hyperliquid, a token he once favored. With the platform now widely recognized and heavily anticipated by the market, Hayes says the easy upside has faded. Capital from his fund, Maelstrom, is better used elsewhere in the altcoin market, he said.
Hayes also brushed off recent comments from President Trump about bringing Hyperliquid onshore, arguing that political statements carry little real weight on crypto prices compared to decisions from the Treasury and Federal Reserve.
Also Read: Strategy Would Survive a 96% Bitcoin Crash. This Is What Could Actually Break It – Report
Closing BitMEX On His Own Terms
Hayes also addressed the upcoming shutdown of BitMEX, the exchange he co-founded in 2014, which will cease operations on September 23. He described the closure as a decision made from strength, not crisis, noting the platform was never hacked and is exiting the business voluntarily. He believes running a standalone exchange today only makes sense at the scale of giants like Binance or OKX, given the cost of infrastructure and security.
Hayes remains a Bitcoin maximalist over the long run, but his trading desk is chasing Ethereum’s catch-up trade in the meantime — a reminder that even bulls hedge their timing.
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